Atlanta, GA
April 14, 2026
“What they have done is engage in this act of economic terrorism against the entire world. As the President showed, two can play at that game.”
- Vice President JD Vance
The war with Iran was lost the moment it was launched. There’s no “winning” a fight that can only make everything worse.
Before the war, the US military offered the illusion of Mideast security. For half a century, like a mob boss running a protection racket, it pledged to defend Gulf monarchies if they’d price oil in dollars and recycle sales into U.S. assets.
This buttressed dollar dominance while keeping US domestic prices under control. But Iran called the bluff, with the petrodollar part of the pot. Their retaliation has revealed America’s far-flung empire to be as much a target as a shield.
The Nuclear Option
Donald Trump’s undeclared Persian war is reckless, stupid, and unnecessary. Prior to being Pearl Harbored, Iran had no nuclear weapons, nor was it aiming to acquire them. U.S. intelligence and international inspectors repeatedly reaffirmed this before the “Twelve Day War” last June.
On the eve of the current calamity, Iranian leaders offered the same assurance. President Trump agreed last summer, by bragging that he’d “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capability.
Even if Iran were lying (tho’ in this conflict they aren’t the combatant that’s tended to do that), they have no ability to strike the U.S., and had no reason to do so. Like “liberating the Iranian people”, the four-decade nuclear excuse is tired propaganda to whet popular appetites for this idiotic war.
But the Iranians have now been given reason to want nuclear weapons. And they’re using the one they’ve always had. They’ve shackled the Strait of Hormuz, thru which a fifth of global oil and up to half the world’s fertilizer flows. The war has become largely about clearing the passage, which was open before the U.S. and Israel picked this fight.
Even now, Hormuz isn’t “closed”. Like bootleggers in a neighborhood run by a mafia family, ships can pass at Iran’s behest. Iran (justifiably) claims the fees are reparations for deaths and damage this war has inflicted. While this mechanism might not make the Iranian regime rich, it provides newfound leverage to make a lot of people poor.
U.S. bases and warships are out of the way, and have been exposed as out of date. The US government has extracted trillions from its taxpayers to start unnecessary wars with archaic equipment. This misadventure has made the folly obvious. Most regional bases have been blown by drones from their oases in the sand, and ships have been chased to sea by Iranian strikes.
American sanctions and permission are hardly relevant. Iran controls the turnstile, and is making its mint. To access the strait, captains of invited vessels must send a couple million dollars of bitcoin to a designated wallet. This payment is immediate, evading any penalties the U.S. might want to impose.
Irresponsible and Shameful
It’s hard to imagine a bigger mess, or a more shameful way to have made it. Especially since the turn of last century, almost every US administration has been awful (for a catalog of the most egregious rogues, go here).
But has one ever more irresponsible or dishonorable? It’s as if the Trump team takes pride in embarrassing (or killing) leaders it lures to negotiation.
After twice attacking Iran during ongoing talks to (ostensibly) avoid war, last week it claimed Pakistani mediators it selected were lying when they included Lebanon in the latest “ceasefire”.
Never mind that the Pakistanis were reading a script the White House wrote, or that Iranians would never have agreed to a ceasefire that excluded Lebanon.
Obviously it did. We all saw what it said. The announcement explicitly included Lebanon. Claiming otherwise is like Iran continuing to attack Tel Aviv because it assumed Israel wasn’t part of the pause.
But after four decades blaming Iran for mischief in Lebanon… and even using the 1983 Beirut barracks bombing as a justification for this war… Trump sycophants (it’s astounding that any remain) now insist Lebanon has nothing to do with Iran!
This isn’t the first time in this conflict that the U.S. government has undercut mediators it selected. Last month, U.S.-selected Omani mediators assured the world Iran was willing to deal. The day after they made that announcement, the American military sneak-attacked Tehran.
Predictably, the current “ceasefire” seems to have fallen apart. It was apparently a ruse to escape Donald Trump’s genocidal threat to wipe-out a civilization, and to allow the US and Israel time to re-load. Immediately after it was announced, Israel attacked civilians in Lebanon. So Iran continues to hold Hormuz.
Blockading the Blockade
But what if the Iranians aren’t the ones who want the strait closed? Sealing the passage is like blockading itself. Aside from excluding US and Israeli ships, that makes little sense.
Which is why Hormuz isn’t shut. It’s open to anyone who pays to pass. To keep the lights on and bellies full, for most countries and companies the toll is worth it. While their fee is in effect, Iran is being funded.
Daft as it is, the Trump Administration is sentient enough to recognize this. But they also knew Iran would close the strait if it were attacked. By attacking anyway, the Americans and Israelis either didn’t care about the closure… or wanted it to occur.
Irked that Europeans didn’t rush to help clean up their mess, the Trump team created a pretext to seal Hormuz themselves. Like George W Bush “abandon[ing] free-market principles to save the free-market system,” the administration is closing the strait in order to open it (note that when discussing any of this disaster, Congress never comes up).
Yesterday, it imposed a blockade outside Iran’s toll booth. Prices for physical barrels of oil floated higher. They’d approached $150 last week, before the blockade was announced. They’re now more than $50 above the paper futures, which also rose.
Whatever fuel remains available won’t get cheaper. Fertilizer also isn’t getting thru, meaning large chunks of this year’s crops won’t get planted. In Europe, Asia, Australia, and other regions reliant on Middle Eastern resources, tanks and shelves could empty within months.
The easiest way to open the strait is for the US government to stop attacking Iran, quit supporting Israel, remove all personnel and resources from the region, and mind its own business. It should’ve done all this anyway. Years ago.
Instead, another war rages on.
What has it wrought? The illusion of US protection is shattered, the reality of American imperial overreach was revealed, dollar hegemony was (further) dented, Iranian regional power is enhanced, and global antagonism against America has been heightened. And all this was paid for (so far) with billions of dollars we didn’t have and hundreds of innocent lives that can’t be replaced.
The Real Enemy
Much is made of tankers headed to the U.S. to carry American oil and gas to deprived places. This sounds good. And for some connected interests, it will be.
But the U.S. doesn’t have capacity to supply all the deficiencies and distortions caused by its government’s mayhem in the Middle East. Supply shocks and increased demand will raise prices for American consumers, and wreck economies across Asia and around the West.
Perhaps the U.S. government is winning its war, but Iran isn’t the real enemy. Maybe it’s the usual victims who are the real targets of this attack.
JD
PS - Bad as this administration has been, others have also been awful. Here’s a catalog of the worst and best presidents the US has had:
If governments ever acted intelligent, we'd be in real trouble.
Another great thought piece JD.
I have given some thought to this fiasco and there's a few potential scenarios that kinda explain it.
1/ The US wants to starve China of oil. (Cut off supplies from Venezuela and Iran)
2/ The US also wants to kneecap Europe and the Euro as competitors with the dollar
3/ The US wants to maintain strategic dominance by weakening the rest of the planet.
4/ All of the above
5/ The US is currently run by a system that is psychopathic, entitled and narcissistic in nature and doesn't really give a s**t about the rest of the world or even it's own people because the guy who dies with the most toys wins.
The "Unforeseen" or more likely not considered consequences of this thing is that millions of people can't afford to put gas in their car to go to work. Additionally their food costs have gone up by about 20% so far and headed higher.
That's assuming that the trucks that deliver the food can afford the diesel and that they can actually get diesel.
All of which is predicated on farmers being able to access diesel for their tractors to spread the fertiliser to grow their crops. (If they can get it and can afford it..)
In my opinion this whole thing is the most imbecilic and cretinous act ever carried out by the US and there's a long long list of those things.
Trump needs to go.
Make America Great Again. I miss that shining city on the hill, by golly!