I lost my web content writing job to Ai 5 years ago. Turned out to be a good thing - since then, I've learned to garden, to process the produce, and to cook and sew. I miss the income, but I think my new skills will help my family survive what is coming.
I'm not going to overly fret about the advent of AI. It will still need human assistance; certainly human oversight.
For example, tax preparation. Yes, AI can prepare the form but only if the human feeds it with the correct numbers.
But the best example that comes to my mind is flying airplanes
When you get aboard an airliner on your way to some distant city, your pilot isn't flying the airplane. For the last half century, all airliners have what's called an auto-pilot that does the flying.
And auto-throttles that maintains the speed. All the pilot does is get the airliner to the runway; take it off and then land it.
The time to fret is when waking, talking robots plant crops, flip burgers and take off and land airliners.
You may be right (for the sake of my son, who wants to be a pilot, I hope you are!). As I acknowledged, I don’t pretend to know, but appreciate your assessment. Thanks as always.
I agree with you on trades but I think you’re missing the multiplier effect of this. One pilot can only supervise one plane at a time. But one white collar employee with AI can supervise what was previously the work of dozens (? Hundreds?) of people.
Hard to believe, but it's coming much faster than almost anyone expects.
In one of my companies, we decided no new hires over a year ago because we could see that AI could already be used for many problems. Move forward to today - things are moving much faster than I anticipated.
On Friday I wrote a 300 page report that laid out the architecture and structure for a 10 billion dollar business, accurately and with precision. The whole process took less than an hour.
Look out world because this is going to tear it apart.
I’m hesitant to agree with the claims in this article, such as AI will replace coders first, when the author has limited knowledge of what goes into software development. The highest paid developers aren’t the ones writing code, even 10 years ago pre ai…
Watched a demonstration of an electrical connection from a transformer to a inlet breaker panel. From move in, to dig to run wires it took one person. Total time was a little over 2 hours to go 100 feet. That included terminating at both ends. Clean up took less than 1/2 hour. That would have been a 2 day job for 4 people.
So I agree AI can take care of things like making a weekly status report for a project or better yet, just build a dashboard for management that pulls those metrics from a system, but how exactly is the AI going to provide leadership or motivation to a team? To me this is just another productivity tool, not a replacement unless you are in a task oriented role. Not so long ago there was this technology called a word processor and then a personal computer, if you worked in the typing pool, yeah, you need to retrain, but end users benefited from being able to do that work themselves. Maybe I’m wrong, but there have been so many promises by tech companies that have only somewhat become realities. I like the research I can do with AI, but I don’t think it’s going to take my job in 18 months. Maybe I’m wrong, we will see, but thank you for the article.
…but who knows in our current crazy matrix. But what I *know* is that I am most thankful for your GATEWAYS AND RETREATS, which I have just purchased and am very much looking forward to… or to which I am very much looking forward… And, again, cheers to you, sir!
Thank you for the well-reasoned counterpoint article. As I noted, I’m no expert (I’m barely an amateur) in AI, so such perspectives are helpful. I also appreciate your purchase of (and expectations for) Gateways and Retreats. I hope they’re met, and that you enjoy reading. Thanks again.
Most office- and paper-munching dinos will go extinct.
Whoever has practical experience combining sight, hearing, haptic, taste, hands and heart to produce/create bespoke items, whatever they are, will thrive better than ever ...
Crafts, special tooling and experience are the ultimate keys to the future.
I reckon you're spot-on with this article. I've been simply using ChatGPT to assist with a sci-fi-ish story I'm writing, and am stunned by the ''judgement'' and ''taste'' that it uses. It has completely absorbed my theme and purpose, in addition to providing the technical info I originally intended it for. It's become more fun to see what ideas and distinctions Chat comes up with, than to do the writing itself! I am truly awed. It's a massive wave coming, and I, and others, may or may not be able to ride it.
I surely am glad that My shelf life can expire at any day now as My age is not that comfortable any more. Always there is something man made that creates another hurdle. Good or bad - that is what You and I have to decide-re Ai.
I lost my web content writing job to Ai 5 years ago. Turned out to be a good thing - since then, I've learned to garden, to process the produce, and to cook and sew. I miss the income, but I think my new skills will help my family survive what is coming.
I'm not going to overly fret about the advent of AI. It will still need human assistance; certainly human oversight.
For example, tax preparation. Yes, AI can prepare the form but only if the human feeds it with the correct numbers.
But the best example that comes to my mind is flying airplanes
When you get aboard an airliner on your way to some distant city, your pilot isn't flying the airplane. For the last half century, all airliners have what's called an auto-pilot that does the flying.
And auto-throttles that maintains the speed. All the pilot does is get the airliner to the runway; take it off and then land it.
The time to fret is when waking, talking robots plant crops, flip burgers and take off and land airliners.
You may be right (for the sake of my son, who wants to be a pilot, I hope you are!). As I acknowledged, I don’t pretend to know, but appreciate your assessment. Thanks as always.
Yes. When a functional walking opposed digit robot/droid is matched with AI, many of the trades will be performed by robot/droids.
We are using AI now to diagnose problems with autos and trucks in our shop. Still need the human to do the manual work currently.
I think it will be many years before a human like robot will be able to perform the same tasks as are required for auto/truck repair or similar jobs.
I agree with you on trades but I think you’re missing the multiplier effect of this. One pilot can only supervise one plane at a time. But one white collar employee with AI can supervise what was previously the work of dozens (? Hundreds?) of people.
Hard to believe, but it's coming much faster than almost anyone expects.
In one of my companies, we decided no new hires over a year ago because we could see that AI could already be used for many problems. Move forward to today - things are moving much faster than I anticipated.
Thanks for this JD. AI is formidable indeed.
On Friday I wrote a 300 page report that laid out the architecture and structure for a 10 billion dollar business, accurately and with precision. The whole process took less than an hour.
Look out world because this is going to tear it apart.
I’m hesitant to agree with the claims in this article, such as AI will replace coders first, when the author has limited knowledge of what goes into software development. The highest paid developers aren’t the ones writing code, even 10 years ago pre ai…
Watched a demonstration of an electrical connection from a transformer to a inlet breaker panel. From move in, to dig to run wires it took one person. Total time was a little over 2 hours to go 100 feet. That included terminating at both ends. Clean up took less than 1/2 hour. That would have been a 2 day job for 4 people.
Blew my mind!
So I agree AI can take care of things like making a weekly status report for a project or better yet, just build a dashboard for management that pulls those metrics from a system, but how exactly is the AI going to provide leadership or motivation to a team? To me this is just another productivity tool, not a replacement unless you are in a task oriented role. Not so long ago there was this technology called a word processor and then a personal computer, if you worked in the typing pool, yeah, you need to retrain, but end users benefited from being able to do that work themselves. Maybe I’m wrong, but there have been so many promises by tech companies that have only somewhat become realities. I like the research I can do with AI, but I don’t think it’s going to take my job in 18 months. Maybe I’m wrong, we will see, but thank you for the article.
Who would need a team?
Damn. . .
JD … Here’s another (perhaps more optimistic?) POV on AI: https://open.substack.com/pub/davidwsilva/p/im-sorry-to-burst-your-bubble-you?r=25fuez&utm_medium=ios
…but who knows in our current crazy matrix. But what I *know* is that I am most thankful for your GATEWAYS AND RETREATS, which I have just purchased and am very much looking forward to… or to which I am very much looking forward… And, again, cheers to you, sir!
Thank you for the well-reasoned counterpoint article. As I noted, I’m no expert (I’m barely an amateur) in AI, so such perspectives are helpful. I also appreciate your purchase of (and expectations for) Gateways and Retreats. I hope they’re met, and that you enjoy reading. Thanks again.
Most office- and paper-munching dinos will go extinct.
Whoever has practical experience combining sight, hearing, haptic, taste, hands and heart to produce/create bespoke items, whatever they are, will thrive better than ever ...
Crafts, special tooling and experience are the ultimate keys to the future.
I reckon you're spot-on with this article. I've been simply using ChatGPT to assist with a sci-fi-ish story I'm writing, and am stunned by the ''judgement'' and ''taste'' that it uses. It has completely absorbed my theme and purpose, in addition to providing the technical info I originally intended it for. It's become more fun to see what ideas and distinctions Chat comes up with, than to do the writing itself! I am truly awed. It's a massive wave coming, and I, and others, may or may not be able to ride it.
I surely am glad that My shelf life can expire at any day now as My age is not that comfortable any more. Always there is something man made that creates another hurdle. Good or bad - that is what You and I have to decide-re Ai.
Great article
Thank you, Gert.